Booking Holdings stock price has been in a strong freefall in the past three consecutive weeks as concerns about the travel industry remains. BKNG dropped to a low it $4,237 on Monday, reaching its lowest level since April last year. It has crashed by 27% from its all-time high.

Why Booking Holdings stock has crashed 

Booking Holdings and other travel-related companies have pulled back in the past few months. Airbnb stock has slipped by 27% from its highest point in 2025, while TripAdvisor slumped to the lowest level since June last year.

Other companies like Expedia and Trip.com have also plunged in the past few months, erasing billions of dollars in value.

Booking Holdings and these other companies have slumped in the past few months as investors remain concerned about the travel industry’s future. A major concern is that the decision by Donald Trump to pause travel from some countries will have an impact on the industry.

The stock has retreated as concerns about the Middle East continue. A prolonged war in the region would lead to travel disruptions and higher travel costs.

The most recent results showed that the company’s business is doing well and that it will bounce back over time. Its results showed that the company’s room nights rose by 8% to 323 million, while its revenue rose by 13% to $9 billion.

The strong revenue growth happened because of the strength of its brands, which include companies like Booking, Priceline, Agoda, and OpenTable. All these companies have a strong presence in the travel industry.

Notably, the company expects that its business will continue doing well in the coming quarters. Its guidance was that its fourth quarter revenue growth would be between 10% and 12%. Also, the adjusted EBITDA is expected to come in between $2 billion and $2.1 billion.

Wall Street analysts, on the other hand, expect the revenue to be $6.1 billion, up by 16.8%, bringing its annual revenue to $26.7 billion. This revenue growth will soar to $29 billion this year. 

Booking Holdings stock has become undervalued as its forward price-to-earnings ratio is 19, down from the five-year average of 30. The forward PEG ratio is 1.18, also lower than the sector median of 1.86.

BKNG stock price technical analysis 

The weekly timeframe chart shows that the BKNG stock price has crashed in the past few weeks, moving from a high of $5,832 in July last year to the current $4,250.

It has moved to the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. Also, the stock formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, a common bearish reversal sign in technical analysis.

The stock has moved below the Supertrend indicator, a sign that bears are in control. Also, it has moved below the 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have continued falling. The RSI moved to the oversold level of 30, while the two lines of the MACD indicators have continued falling.

Therefore, the most likely Booking Holdings stock forecast is highly bearish, with the next key support level being the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level at $3,722, which is a 12% drop from the current level.

Booking stock will likely bounce back in the coming weeks, potentially after publishing its financial results on February 18 this year.

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Apollo Global Management is close to finalising a roughly $3.4 billion loan to an investment vehicle that plans to purchase Nvidia chips and lease them to Elon Musk-led artificial intelligence company xAI, according to a report by The Information citing a person familiar with the matter.

The deal could be completed as soon as this week, with Valor Equity Partners, a longtime backer of Musk’s ventures, arranging the transaction.

The financing reflects how Wall Street is increasingly structuring bespoke vehicles to fund the explosive demand for AI compute infrastructure, as companies race to secure scarce high-performance chips and data centre capacity.

Financing model reshapes AI infrastructure funding

Leasing chips and compute infrastructure has emerged as a crucial mechanism for AI companies seeking to scale rapidly without tying up capital in costly hardware purchases.

For xAI, the model offers a way to expand its computing footprint while continuing to invest heavily in talent, software and data centres.

If completed, the transaction would mark Apollo’s second major investment in a chip-leasing vehicle tied to xAI.

In November, Apollo-backed funds provided a similar $3.5 billion loan.

Over the weekend, Apollo also said its funds led $3.5 billion in financing for a roughly $5.4 billion data-centre compute deal arranged by Valor, structured as a triple-net lease and backed by Nvidia as an anchor investor.

Apollo estimates that global data centre infrastructure will require several trillion dollars of investment over the next decade, driven by accelerating demand for AI workloads.

Since 2022, Apollo-managed funds and affiliates have deployed more than $40 billion into next-generation infrastructure spanning compute capacity, digital platforms and renewable energy.

Musk’s broader AI and space strategy

The financing discussions come shortly after Musk announced that SpaceX had acquired xAI in a deal valuing the rocket company at $1 trillion and the AI firm at $250 billion.

Musk has said the rationale behind combining the two entities is partly to advance the development of orbital data centres, which could use space-based infrastructure to support next-generation AI computing.

Big technology companies are expected to spend more than $600 billion this year on advanced chips and data centres, underscoring the scale of capital required to compete in the AI race.

xAI has tapped Wall Street, sovereign investors and venture capital firms for billions of dollars over the past year.

It recently announced a $20 billion investment in Mississippi and raised another $20 billion in equity from investors, including Nvidia, Valor and the Qatar Investment Authority.

As xAI continues to burn cash on infrastructure and talent, analysts expect the company to rely increasingly on special purpose vehicles and structured financing to sustain its rapid expansion.

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The oversupply in the oil market at the beginning of the year is likely to have been sharply lower than previously expected. 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its outlook for the global oil market, specifically downgrading its prior expectations concerning the magnitude of the supply surplus. 

This adjustment was not a recent development but had already been implemented in the preceding month’s market report. 

Key supply drivers

This significant recalibration suggests that the IEA now anticipates a tighter balance between crude oil production and global demand than previously modeled, reflecting a reassessment of various factors impacting both the supply and consumption sides of the energy equation. 

Since the beginning of 2025, a strong surge in oil supply has driven the current global surplus.

Non-OPEC+ producers have been responsible for nearly 60% of the total 3 million barrels per day increase, IEA said in its January monthly report.

The increase in OPEC+ supply has been spearheaded by Saudi Arabia as production cuts were lifted. 

Concurrently, the rise in non-OPEC+ output has been primarily driven by five American nations: the United States, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina.

Global oil supplies are projected to see a further increase of 2.5 million bpd in 2026. 

Agency forecasts, outages, and inventory snapshot

This forecast is contingent on two main factors: that OPEC+ maintains its current production policy, and that there are no significant, sustained disruptions to output, particularly avoiding major downturns in the US shale patch activity.

Combined with the hefty surplus that has built up in storage tanks and at sea over the past year, this would leave the market with a significant buffer well in excess of demand, which is forecast to increase by 930 kb/d in 2026. 

In its December report, IEA had said that demand for 2026 was seen at 860,000 bpd this year. 

Next week, the three energy agencies will present their new forecasts, namely OPEC, IEA and the US Energy Information Administration. 

“In view of the cold weather, they are likely to revise their expectations for global oil demand upwards for the current year, while production expectations are likely to be adjusted downwards due to numerous outages,” Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said. 

Meanwhile, OPEC’s daily oil production dropped by 230,000 barrels in January compared to December, according to a Bloomberg survey.

This decline was partially attributed to lower output from Venezuela, with Kazakhstan also reporting significant production outages.

On the other hand, due to the recent winter storm, the EIA will probably adjust the US oil production figures for January, revising them slightly downward.

US crude oil inventories dropped by 3.5 million barrels last week, according to EIA’s latest report. 

Gasoline stocks rose by 685,000 barrels, while distillate stocks fell by 5.6 million barrels.

API figures showed a greater crude decline (11.1 million barrels), a larger gasoline increase (4.7 million barrels), and a similar distillate drop (4.8 million barrels).

The inventory data is distorted by the effects of the winter storm, but the impact was less than expected, according to Commerzbank. 

The reduction in US crude oil inventories was limited because domestic production only fell by 480,000 barrels per day last week. 

This modest decline, combined with only a slight dip in crude oil processing and an increase in net crude oil imports, prevented a more substantial decrease in stockpiles.

Analyst assessment and long-term price view

“All in all, the oversupply in the oil market at the beginning of the year is likely to have been significantly lower than previously expected,” Lambrecht said. 

As energy organisations downgrade their expectations regarding oversupply this year, oil prices could get some temporary support, according to Lambrecht. 

“However, we fundamentally stand by our assessment that oversupply will cause prices to fall over the course of the year,” Lambrecht added. 

After all, the production outages are only temporary and OPEC+ is likely to further increase production from April onwards.

At the time of writing, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was at $63.24 per barrel, largely flat, while Brent was at $67.53 per barrel, also unchanged from the previous close. 

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Nvidia stock (NASDAQ: NVDA) surged about 5% on Friday, leading a tech rebound after a bruising week for software and data stocks.

Traders said the move comes on the back of multiple factors, including fresh demand signals for AI hardware and upbeat comments from a key supplier.

NVDA’s rally came even as investors digest bigger picture worries about AI capex and competition, making Friday’s spike as part of mechanical repositioning.

Nvidia stock: AI capex and earnings spillovers fuel the rally

Several developments this week gave investors a tangible reason to buy Nvidia stock on dips.

Suppliers and industry groups signalled stronger hardware demand.

Reuters reported a senior executive at Nvidia supplier Wistron saying AI orders would grow in 2026 and that new US facilities will start volume production.

Separately, the Semiconductor Industry Association said global chip sales could hit roughly $1 trillion this year, underscoring broad demand for semiconductors.

Those industry cues arrived alongside fresh headlines about Nvidia’s strategic moves, including reports that the company is in talks to invest in a major AI player.

The developments bolstered expectations that data-centre spending will remain elevated.

For investors, that matters because Nvidia’s high-end GPUs are the backbone of large AI deployments. Stronger capex from hyperscalers and enterprises translates relatively directly into revenue visibility.

In plain terms, if companies keep buying super-fast chips, Nvidia’s sales outlook looks stronger, and traders reward the NDVA stock.

Analysts weigh in

Market commentators are split on whether today’s gain signals a sustained re-rating or a technical rebound.

Some analysts point to supplier confirmations and industry forecasts as evidence that demand for Nvidia’s data-centre products is real and long-term, supporting higher valuation multiples.

Others warn that, after a sharp pullback in software and tech stocks, part of the move is likely short covering and options-driven flows that can produce quick spikes without lasting conviction.

Traders also note that even positive headlines can trigger volatile reactions.

When a heavily shorted, high-beta Nvidia stock moves, automated strategies and derivative positions amplify the swing.

That’s why sober observers stress the difference between catalyst-driven rallies and flow-driven ones.

Investors will likely take a look at the corroborating evidence inclusing follow-through buying, volume confirmation, and more supplier/order-book, before calling today’s move the start of a new rally.

Market participants will broadly track two things next.

Follow-up comments from Nvidia customers and suppliers that confirm order strength, and upcoming company updates or earnings guidance that clarify revenue timing.

If subsequent data show sustained demand, today’s 5% rise could mark the start of a steadier run; otherwise, it may prove a short, sentiment-driven rebound.

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